Market leadership in flux, bitcoin in trouble: Market takeaways

Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend to break down his key takeaways from the trading day.

Blikre explains that stock market leadership is in flux. While the tech sector and megacaps have been in the lead, energy has risen as crude oil sits above $80 per barrel. Financials and staples are also rising, shaking up the market leaderboard.

Blikre also notes that July is historically a positive month for the Nasdaq (^IXIC). The first 10 days of the month usually see the best performance from the index, and this July could be no different.

Finally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) is facing its Mt. Gox cliff. The former cryptocurrency exchange is set to distribute 140,000 as part of its bankruptcy agreement.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend.

This post was written by Melanie Riehl

Video Transcript

The S and P 500 NASDAQ bo staffing three day slide today as NVIDIA shares rebound.

Joining me now with more on the day’s train.

Take away is Yahoo finance his very own Jared Bli Jared.

Thank you, Josh.

Take away number one stock market leadership.

It is in flux right now.

We have seen the NASDAQ and the dow acting across purposes.

Uh but we’ve seen a trend change over the last few days, which itself kind of reversed today.

So let me break it all down here.

Here is the sector action for what we saw today.

Tech and communication services that’s meta and alphabet and XL C. Those were number one, that’s the mega cap trade that’s been doing very well.

We know over the last couple of years, but over the last seven days or so, we’ve seen some other sectors really rise to the forefront.

And here over the seven days, we see energy, crude oil wt I above $80 a barrel.

There is XL C in the area again.

So still in the mix, but then we have financials and staples.

So a different mix at the top.

And then here we have real estate, which is down 1.8% not making too much of that.

Uh, but all in all it’s kind of a change in leadership and we can see that with software now, even software is going under the hood, you’re even seeing the other sectors and sub sectors.

Jared.

Yeah.

And I think the big takeaway for software is software.

You know, people think of tech as this monolith but you have software and you have chip stocks, you also have some other stuff, but software has not been doing well.

But I wanna show you this chart right here.

Um This is an intraday chart which looks strikingly similar to the five year chart is just a coincidence, but right now we have software which is forming a cup and handle.

Story continues

This is a handle hasn’t broken to the upside just yet.

But if and when it does watch out, all right levels to watch.

Second point.

Yes.

Um Well, the second point has to do with July all, all to it.

We talked about this last week.

So I got that chart plus another one.

This is the new chart.

This is uh July only going back 20 years in the NASDAQ.

So each one of these is July.

Only.

What you can see is 10 out of the last 11 years have been positive there and that’s an incredible one.

So it makes you wonder are we going to be pro profit?

Of all this July.

Well, guess what, um, this is the 1st 10 days in the last 10 days of every single month and what we showed this is a chart that we looked at last week.

July here, the 1st 10 days of July best in the year.

So we could see, you know, another big pop in July, let’s say Jared June, let’s say we sail into July.

Right?

Does that change how you think about what could be coming?

That’s I’m sorry, sail into July, you know that change how the seasonality picture kind of painting here.

Well, that’s interesting because we saw a resumption of that mega cap trade today.

I think if we saw some outsized returns over the following days into the end of the month that this kind of diminishes.

So you could think of it as pulling forward some of that demand.

So maybe July doesn’t have to happen if we end June with a bank.

But you know, if we go kind of sideways to down over the next few days, I would still look for that July pop.

All right.

Takeaway, Jared Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is facing its Mount Gox cliff.

And for those of you who remember 10 years ago in Bitcoin, Mount Gox was the biggest Cryptocurrency exchange did 70% of all global volumes and it crashed, it was actually hacked, they lost something like 750,000 Bitcoins.

Guess what?

There’s 100 and 40,000 that are sitting there, they have to be distributed by a trustee over in Japan because that’s where the firm was based.

Once 100 and 40,000 Bitcoins $9 billion.

If they were all to come into the market at once, you could imagine the selling deluge that would happen there.

They’re worried about selling pressure.

Yeah.

Uh Pull up the technicals, give me the, the Jared, take away the Bitcoin when the charts telling you right now.

Now we’re talking my language here.

Here’s, here’s Bitcoin.

You can see it’s down 4.6% over the trilling.

Seven days, up 4.5% today.

You know, it had kind of a rough go of it over the last few years days, but it is bounced back.

There’s that Monk Cliff also, Germany uh was selling some Bitcoin that had been confiscated there, you know, in crypto, you never know the whole story, do you?

But here is the five year chart and here’s what I wanna show you.

Here’s another cup, here’s another handle.

This is a higher, higher than this one.

But still we’re just flagging up here waiting to break out until this range is broken.

Doesn’t mean anything.

All right, that’s what to watch Jared.

Thank you, my friend.